It's again festival time for Indian Democracy. With just 10 months to go for the elections, the countdown has begun. Who will be the next Prime Minister of the world's largest democracy? Will the eternal no 2 Advani become the no 1? or Will Rahul Gandhi continue the Nehru family tradition of leading the country? or A surprise in store for us - an unexpected hitherto lesser known candidate ( Remember IK Gujral and HD Dewe Gowda) walk through the corridors of power in South Block?
With victories in Gujarat, Karnataka and HP, BJP seems to be marching towards Redfort. Sky rocketing food and crude prices, a double digit inflationary figure and not so impressive track record of UPA make the BJP the front runner. But much depends on the outcome of the assembly elections to be held in Rajasthan, MP, Chattisgarh and Jharkhand. TINA factor might work in favour of BJP in MP and Chattisgarh. Rajasthan is an acid-test for the saffron party. Caste equations are bound to change as a result of Gujjar stir. A clear picture is yet to emerge on how these equations are expected to change? If BJP manages to retain power in these states, there is a very good chance that they might cross the 160 mark on their own in the Lok Sabha elections. NDA in that scenario might win 250-260 seats.
Mayawati is expected to win around 40 seats. Mulayam might win 20 odd seats. BJP needs the support of either of the parties to form a government. Or a third front government supported by either Congress or BJP is also a possibility. If BJP lose the states of Rajasthan and MP, then India is headed for a period of instability. Situation akin to 1996 would arise as a result of the fractured mandate. At this crucial juncture, instability would severely affect the Indian economy. We need to continue with the economic reforms. It would be in the interest of the country, if a government is formed sans left support, headed by either of the two big national parties. So. it's for the people to decide whether they need a pro- reform government or an anti-reform government.
1 comment:
Watch out for the rise of Chiranjeevi in Andhra Pradesh as a political force..If he starts his party before the elections which in all probability he will do, he might end up being the king maker of the next parliament...
Post a Comment